Recount a Go Go

Here are some interesting statistics given the impending recount of the special election to fill Mike Glowoacki’s seat. You will recall that Catherine Stover beat Patty Roggeveen for the seat by two whole votes.

It would seem like a statistical piece of cake for Ms. Roggeveen to pick up three votes and beat Catherine in a recount. But of the close races on Nantucket over the past eleven years [click on the table on the right to see a larger version] no loser in an election has ever won in a re count. The closest was in 1995 when Killen beat Vacca by a scant four votes. Vacca picked up .21 percent of the votes and Killen lost .10 percent but she still won by by a single vote.

The largest gain for a loser in a BOS recount goes to Brian Chadwick with an increase of a whopping .32% of the vote. Almost a third of a percentage point, or four wwhole votes. Unfortunately for Brian, Our old pal Doug Bennett picked up nine votes in the recount or nearly 3/4ths of a percentage point.

Patty Roggeveen needs to move the needle by .37% of the vote without Catherine gaining ground to win. That does not seem like a lot. But history has shown that bit’s quite a mountain to climb. Even Bud Clute who lost to Richard Bretschneider in 1998’s sheriff race could not win in a recount despite improving by .68%.

The most interesting statistic of all also comes from 1998 when Georgia Snell beat Peter Wilson by just seven votes, but Mr. Wilson decided, in the end, that a recount would not be in the best interests of anyone, and he conceded.

My feeling is that Patty Roggeveen would be smart to do the same. A recount will cost the taxpayers between $2,500 and $3,000 and will require the time of up to 70 volunteers. That’s a lot of fuss for what would, if overturned, amount to only around three months in office.