Who will win Mike Glowacki's seat on the Board of Selectmen?

Where Grant goes out on a limb and predicts the outcome of the race, putting his political cred on the line.

At this point, it's anyone's guess. But here's how I handicap the race. It's a prediction. But I do not guarantee the result. The upshot is, I feel it's too close to call. One thing I can say with complete certainty: anyone who is elected will do a fine job for the four months they will serve.

Scenario No 1. Low turnout. 600 voters, plus or minus.

If there is a low turnout, I believe the race favors Patty Roggeveen because she has a solid and enthusiastic base of supporters and a pretty good network of people who she can count on. If the turnout is low, Patty can easily count on a critical mass of die-hard supporters boosting her over the top. Heck, many, many of her supporters will be working at the school or dropping their kids off or picking them up during the day, so the fact that the polls are in the high school greatly favors her in a low-turnout situation. In this scenario, I see Patty winning with a margin of 5% to 8%.

Scenario No 2. Moderate turnout. 1100 voters.

In the case of a moderate turnout, name recognition and popularity come into play. In this case, Catherine Stover gets the edge. She will benefit from a solid base of people who feel she is the person who is in the best position to hit the ground running and do a lot of good for the current board. And she will benefit from her nearly universal popularity as the current town clerk, a justice of the peace, a member of rotary, a respected St. Mary's parishioner, a SBPF watchdog and a member of the singing Flanagans. Catherine is likely to win in this scenario with a healthy 45-48% of the vote.

Scenario No 3. Healthy turnout. 1500+ voters

I'm not sure if this is likely, given that I suspect the electorate is all "voted out" after two elections and a special town meeting, but if we get a healthy turnout of over 1500 voters this will be because the dark horse candidate, David Gray, has been able to get on the phone tree and spur some real voter turnout among his base. He stands alone as the only candidate unencumbered by the perception of a conflict. Plus he has surprised a number of people I have spoken to in the debates and on the podcast I recently posted on YACKon.com. He's not the same candidate who ran last year. He is stronger on the issues and more self assured. For this reason, I think that if he can get people to the polls, it will be too close to call and anyone could take it. Especially David.

That's my take on it, at least. If I were pushed to make an ultimate prediction, I would give it to the moderate turnout scenario and Catherine. (But, then again, I thought the Pats could easily handle the Jets at home.)

We will see how accurate my predictions are tomorrow at 8 pm. I'll be there, live, to hear who wins. Results will be announced on yackon.com as soon as they are announced at the polls, just after 8 pm.

Nantucket First.